When it comes to new vehicle technologies - more specifically vehicle electrification and autonomy - there seem to be conflicting reports about how far out in the future the implementation of these technologies are, while also being a change so close to more widespread adoption.
Case in point, an IHS Markit report saying 33 million fully autonomous vehicles will be on the roads worldwide by 2040 (that’s 22 years from now ...). But then you hear that Chevrolet is trying to get permission from the government to bypass current laws about airbags due to the removal of the steering wheel for their beta testing of an autonomous fleet of vehicles.
So which is it?
Well, it’s both. And that’s the challenge and the fascination that keeps drawing us back in. We’re just getting started.
Vehicle electrification
With Tesla’s recent unveiling of the Semi in late-2017, buzz seems to have rekindled on alternative fuels, and more specifically electric trucks.
While production isn’t scheduled to begin until 2019, many fleets took notice and placed orders for the all-electric Class 8 truck - including Walmart, J.B. Hunt, Ryder and UPS.
Whether you think Elon Musk’s recent to-do was hot air or a precedent for others to follow, other vehicle OEs – light and heavy duty alike - have also been making significant commitments on investing in alternative fuel technologies like vehicle electrification.
In 2015, Ford earmarked $4.5 billion to vehicle electrification, then more than doubled that commitment this year, announcing $11 billion to develop 40 electric vehicles by 2022. On the commercial vehicle side, Volvo announced its plans to put electric trucks on the road this year, beginning with all-electric delivery trucks in European cities.
One example of how vehicle electrification is both a long way off, and knocking on our door, was discussed during Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue in January.
Jay Craig, President and CEO of Meritor, acknowledged the tipping point for more widespread adoption and economic feasibility of vehicle electrification may happen after electric vehicle battery pack costs get below $150 per kilowatt-hour (it’s currently about $225/kWh).
He adds the adoption of vehicle electrification may be more quickly adopted by the commercial market before it makes headway with consumers.
That’s because fleets will analyze the payback for the full lifecycle of the vehicle, versus the upfront costs associated with passenger vehicle purchases. And, it’s important to look beyond Class 8 trucks, Craig says. There has already been more vehicle electrification and other alternative fuel adoption with fleets having shorter range applications, such as city buses, school buses, delivery and refuse.
Increased adoption of autonomous vehicles
The future of vehicle autonomy and electrification is certain, and those technologies will bring a substantial change to our industry.
Full vehicle autonomy would eliminate the driver, who is currently limited by both governmental regulations through hours of service, and tending to human needs like periodic stops for food and rest. On top of that, you reduce overhead. Not to mention, it may be the dagger to an already dwindling pool of applicants getting behind the wheel.
We’ve seen the impact of autonomous operations in manufacturing; wherever automation can happen, it will increase productivity overall for the supply chain, but gainfully employed drivers will become collateral damage. One hurdle with vehicles, compared to stationary machinery, is the consideration of safety to drivers, bystanders and the outside world.
To address these concerns, we’ve already seen implementation of safety technologies found on vehicles today like stability control, collision warning and avoidance systems, lane departure warning systems and any other system on a vehicle requiring the use of sensors, radar or cameras. This adoption will only continue.
This is a paradigm shift within the industry, and it will significantly change all aspects of our market, maintenance included. Imagine a vehicle that was once on the road for eight hours a day, now operating 20 (or more) hours a day. The parts replacements and wear and tear on that vehicle will significantly increase. Ultimately, that’s a good thing for maintenance.
Shift in maintenance processes
It’s best to know and understand future possibilities, and align them with current operations to continually improve. In the meantime, we’ll continue to play the “hurry up and wait” game.
As it is currently, fleets will continue to address the shorter lifecycle of components: what previously may have been replaced every 10-20 years now must be replaced every five to seven years. There are two reasons for this: government regulations to reduce emissions and fuel economy, and, subsequently, higher demands placed on the vehicle’s engine.
Parts and asset replacement intervals will continue to increase, requiring more standardized maintenance processes and data analytics to review performance and set PM schedules. For vehicle electrification, we’ll see a less frequent service interval. But with autonomous vehicles, dependent on application and time in operation, we may see more frequent maintenance.
And while vehicle electrification solves the issue of reducing vehicle emissions, internal combustion engines aren’t going anywhere soon.
Stop-gap technologies like diesel particulate filters and diesel oxidation catalysts will be sticking around in the interim. But this is a fix to address a reduction in emissions as engineers and OEs continually look for technologies to help alleviate these issues and meet the demands of the regulations and the fleets.
While many might think the electrification of vehicles and vehicle autonomy go hand-in-hand, they’re really just two technology advancements on the same trajectory of more widespread adoption. What remains to be seen is which will come first, and the success of both.
The adoption of these technologies will continue based on two main criteria: vehicle safety, and meeting ever-more stringent government emissions and performance standards. One thing is for sure, change is happening.