FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) eased to 17.1 in June from a record 20.4 in May but continued to point toward favorable market conditions for fleets. The drop may be due in part to slightly weaker freight rate growth. Lower diesel prices in June partially offset that decline, resulting in market conditions that were less favorable than in May. However, FTR said its outlook for fleets is somewhat stronger than in its previous forecast.

“We expect the market to be favorable for carriers throughout our two-year forecast horizon, but the recovery appears to be stabilizing,” said Avery Vise, FTR VP of trucking. “For example, spot rates in July softened as seasonally expected even though fuel prices rose sharply—quite a different dynamic than what occurred in March. Even if spot rates have peaked, contract rates likely will continue to rise well into 2027.”

Vise said the strength of the market continues to be driven primarily by supply constraints, particularly in dry van and refrigerated operations.

FTR noted several concerns, including slower U.S. job growth, a weak housing market, and persistent inflation affecting consumers and businesses.

“Although freight demand still doesn’t look that strong, we see little sign that trucking capacity will rise substantially in the near term,” Vise said.

The TCI measures five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The metrics are combined into a single index measuring overall industry health. Positive readings indicate favorable conditions, while negative readings indicate unfavorable conditions. Readings near zero represent a neutral operating environment, while double-digit readings in either direction indicate significant operating changes are likely.

The 2026 FTR Transportation Conference is scheduled for August 31 through September 3 in Indianapolis, with September 1 dedicated to truck freight market forecasts and discussions.