Class 8 orders fall 31% in July
Key Highlights
- Class 8 net orders in North America fell 31% from June but remained significantly higher than last year, indicating sustained demand.
- Most 2026 production capacity is already booked, with manufacturers yet to open orders for 2027 models, signaling a focus on current-year sales and planning.
- Regulatory changes, including EPA's proposed revisions, could allow manufacturers to extend current engine technology beyond 2026, affecting pricing and build schedules.
- Order activity from September 2025 through July 2026 increased 39% year-over-year, with total orders reaching 344,823 units in the past 12 months.
- Market analysts suggest that demand remains healthy, but future trends will depend on production decisions and regulatory responses by manufacturers.
After June's surge in Class 8 orders, preliminary July data suggests that demand has begun to normalize. North American Class 8 net orders fell 31% from June to 22,000 units, according to FTR, though orders remained 75% higher than a year earlier.
This continued demand was attributed to replacement cycles, firmer freight rates, improving utilization, and moderate pre-buy activity ahead of upcoming emissions changes. However, FTR noted that most 2026 production capacity has already been filled, while manufacturers have yet to open orders for 2027 models.
Through July, Class 8 net orders were up 120% compared to the same period in 2025. During the current order season, spanning September 2025 through July 2026, orders increased 39% year over year. Total Class 8 orders over the past 12 months reached 344,823 units.
“With calendar 2026 production essentially sold out, attention shifts to decisions on model year 2027 engine technology, pricing, and build timing," explained Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles. "Almost all model year 2027 engines are expected to carry manufacturer upcharges tied to compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx regulation."
He added that the EPA's proposed revisions to the 2027 NOx could provide manufacturers with more flexibility to respond to fleet demand.
“For example, under EPA’s planned changes, manufacturers could continue building current-technology engines beyond 2026 indefinitely, subject to the payment of nonconformance penalties (NCPs), which presumably will be passed along to truck buyers," he said. "Several engine manufacturers have already announced plans to use NCPs to offer both current and new platforms well into 2027, and others are considering doing so."
Moyer said July's results indicate Class 8 demand remains healthy despite slowing from the unusually strong order activity seen this winter and spring. He added that the market's next phase will depend more on production decisions and how manufacturers respond to regulatory flexibility.
FTR said these preliminary figures are subject to revision when final data is released later this month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.