Compared to September and October of 2015, demand trends in automotive repair have increased, according to survey responses collected from nearly 300 independent garage owners by Northcoast Research, in partnership with VehicleServicePros.com. 

The increase in demand, especially for preventive, routine  and nonessential maintenance, was due to several factors, according to Northcoast Research, including:  

• Extended warmer weather in typically cold market regions (Northeast and Midwest) which created "pent-up demand" for maintenance. 

• Lower fuel costs which aided in discretionary repairs, a healthy driving lifestyle and more disposable income. 

• Failure rates related to the overall aging car parc (or total number of vehicles in the region) which increased demand for maintenance. 

In October 2016, 8.7 percent of the respondents indicated their customer base performed more routine maintenance in the period than they normally do. That number is above the long-term average of 7.6 percent. October is typically the month that mechanics have noticed, according to self-reported industry trend data, the most preventive work and nonessential repairs being requested. 

“The amount of customers coming in and simply asking for a diagnostic overview of their vehicle without having any repair work, aside from maybe an oil change, is something I’ve never seen before," commented one anonymous survey respondent from Tennessee. "I think people want to ride out one last winter until they scrap [the vehicle] and upgrade. The majority of our customers have cars that are 8 to 12 years old.” 

Although trend results in October increased, compared to the two previous months in 2016 – August and September – it actually was a more average number. The higher increase in August and September was due to the calendar shift, and additional "pent-up demand" released because of the heat surge.  

Generally, the survey found that most mechanics had "collective optimism" about the demand trends in the DIFM (Do-It-For-Me) market in September, but that fades slightly in October (especially int he Great Lakes and Northeast regions of the country due to "growing [anxiety over] the fact that its already the middle of November and there have been [few] signs of cold weather.") 

But, before calling an end to the recent decelerating trend in automotive repair, Northcoast notes it may be best to wait a month or two to see how much the current acceleration in demand trends is from short-term revenue of pent-up demands in the Northeast and Midwest regions or a sustainable acceleration in underlying trends.