How the model works
To gauge the costs of tort law on the U.S. economy, ILR and the Brattle Group used the latter’s “BEYOND” model to look at cost impacts on a state-by-state basis, with a focus on commercial automobile tort costs (CATC). For the study, CATC included household awards, insurance, and legal services, with verdict awards/settlements amounting to 62% of overall liability costs. Then, they reduced CATC in each state (in proportion to commercial automobile transportation revenues) to equal the minimum level in any state, based on the cost in the trucking industry and outside of it.
For the trucking industry, that minimum tort cost per revenue is $25 per $1,000, which is the level in North Dakota. For outside of trucking, that minimum cost is about $1 per $1,000 of revenue, which is the cost in Wisconsin. Based on these caps, ILR found that total tort costs for the trucking sector would have declined by about $6 billion in 2022, representing a 40% drop. Meanwhile with the $1 cap, non-trucking commercial vehicle tort costs would have dropped by about $23 billion (46% drop) in 2022.
With these impacts together and applied to the present, this is how ILR’s model estimated that the U.S. GDP would grow $523 billion over the next 10 years (2025-2034).
State-by-state results
Additionally, LIR and the Brattle Group examined how capping tort costs would impact states individually, especially those with high CATC in trucking and those whose economies depend on trucking.
For instance, the model found that California and Texas have the highest tort costs per $1,000 in revenue in transportation, and thus would see the most benefits from tort cost caps. Plus, the organizations argued that because CATC grew at an average rate of 6.7% per year during the timespan of its data collection (2016-2022), then the U.S. GDP would increase even more if that rising CATC rate was curbed.