By earlier this year, the writing was already on the wall—medium-duty truck sales were on the decline.
According to the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), Q1 2025 sales totaled 55,013 units, representing a year-over-year drop of 9.4% for Class 4-7 vehicles.
For more on medium-duty trends:
Then in June, ACT Research reported new orders for Class 5-7 trucks fell by 42% year-over-year, their lowest point since the pandemic. At this point, sales were down 6.7% year-to-date.
July data from Wards Intelligence for Classes 4-6 indicated an even more dire market. Overall, Wards said U.S. medium-duty truck sales fell 17.3% yoy, despite Class 7 increasing 6.9%. Class 4 saw a 27.3% decline, Class 5 was down 30.3%, and Class 6 a more respectable 16.5%.
But what was driving this?
“Elevated inventories and a weaker economic outlook have slowed sales and orders for medium-duty trucks notably,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Slowing services momentum is a particular concern for medium-duty demand.”
At ACT Research’s August seminar, Eaton’s Chief Economist Jordan Vickers set the likelihood for reacceleration/modest growth at 75% over the next 18 months, and a 25% chance for a recession.
All reports indicate persistent weak demand across key vocational sectors that use medium-duty trucks, such as services, manufacturing, and housing. A generally weak economic outlook is also a factor contributing to the slowdown in medium-duty truck demand.
Public and private sector buyers, including lease and rental fleets, are cautious as well, focusing on essential replacements and delaying broader fleet upgrades due to pricing and policy uncertainty. That includes regulatory issues, specifically regarding EPA 2027 low-NOx regulations, and the ongoing impact that tariffs might have, pushing fleets to delay significant investments.
On a positive note, Class 7 saw some signs of normalization. With medium-duty backlogs returned to more traditional levels and have settled, the outlook is now more stable in acquisitions and equipment replacement.
With all that in mind, any fleet in the market for new MD trucks should be selective. The good news is the manufacturers’ latest models have enhanced cabs, powertrains, and other systems and technologies to push efficiency and productivity forward now and for the future. In the gallery above, here’s a look at what’s available today and what’s coming down the assembly line in the next few years.
About the Author
Seth Skydel
Seth Skydel, a veteran industry editor, has more than 36 years of experience in fleet management, trucking, and transportation and logistics publications. Today, in editorial and marketing roles, he writes about fleet, service, and transportation management, vehicle and information technology, and industry trends and issues.