Why electric fleets are not actually the future

I’ve worked in the supply chain and transportation space for decades. I have seen many fads come and go. The latest? Electric fleets. I believe it is just that – a passing trend.

Electric fleets are the fluorescent light bulbs of transportation. Just like everyone was buying up fluorescent light bulbs thinking they were saving energy and then soon switched back over to LED, I predict the same will happen for electric fleets. The complexity, lifespan, and cost to make electric fleets work will drive them out of existence, and we will soon move to cleaner fuel or hydrogen as an alternative fuel cell engine.

Battery technology is not a long-term solution

There are a lot of issues with using battery technology to power long-haul trucks. Sure, there are exciting opportunities with short-distance trucking and last mile delivery¾for example, Amazon’s fleet of Rivian vans. However, when it comes to long-distance Over-the-Road (OTR) trucking, electric fleets will not be possible in the next 10 years.

First, battery technology has a sweet spot from a temperature perspective, which creates complications. Batteries cannot be too cold or too hot or they lose significant range and efficiency. This means if a truck is sitting in Minnesota overnight in the middle of January, all the energy will be put toward keeping the battery itself warm, losing power that could be used to move the truck closer to its destination.

Not to mention, long-haul trucks are huge. They are often carrying 50,000 pounds of goods. It is very difficult to find a battery¾let alone a cost-efficient one¾that will be able to take a truck uphill without becoming depleted by the top.

This brings me to my next¾and arguably most important¾point: In supply chain, from this day on, the top priority is keeping costs down. And, batteries are not the most cost-effective answer. Electric vehicles (EVs) will never be cheaper than diesel, and that will ultimately deter fleet owners.

Not only is the cost of the actual battery expensive, but the expenses associated with managing and maintaining an electric fleet are much higher than those powered by diesel. The time it takes to charge batteries is wasting time and money, and in turn driving up costs for customers.  

To operate the most efficiently, drivers need to be able to unplug the battery and immediately plug in a new one, so time is not wasted. With the battery technology we have today, this is not possible, and we lack the infrastructure to make it a reality anytime soon.

Another key factor is safety concerns, especially with the fire risks of lithium batteries. If a Tesla passenger vehicle fire can go on for days, I would hate to see a long-haul truck fire if an accident or problem occurred on the road. Lithium fires require a special emergency action plan since they cannot be put out with water. Until the infrastructure is in place to quickly respond to this type of fire, I would not put my drivers and the public at risk operating this type of vehicle over long distances.

The path forward

Fuel cell technology will be the key to cleaner fleets. This energy method will make it possible to easily swap out the fuel cell within minutes and keep going on your trip. Hydrogen fuel cells only emit water vapor, making them lower or zero emissions compared to combustion engines.

Fuel cell trucks typically have a longer range than battery-electric trucks, making them ideal for long-haul routes. A fuel cell truck can typically last 300-500 miles per hydrogen refill, whereas battery-electric trucks only last about 150-300 miles per charge – and then require several hours of idle time to recharge.

I recognize there are issues still with hydrogen. Storing hydrogen can be complicated and expensive. Hydrogen is historically leaky. While at this moment, it’s not a perfect solution, it holds more promise. The power to mass ratio of hydrogen is much more powerful compared to the power of EVs, making it a better long-term solution.

Another path forward will be renewable diesel, which has clean burning efficiencies. There is opportunity to use what we have now but in a cleaner, better way. I’d love to see more investment in cleaning diesel and managing emissions, however this research is likely going to be slowed under the current US administration.

Improved trucking optimization is another way for fleets to operate more sustainably without changing the power source. If you move a full truck¾and I mean 100% full, every last foot utilized¾you are operating in a more green and cost-efficient way. Completely full trucks are a must to maximize the movement of goods and one way to do this better is to collaborate with different companies and industries. For example, if two different food and beverage companies shared trucks because they are both moving potato chips to the same town, that’s already improving efficiency and minimizing emissions.

The final word

At the end of the day, making fleets more sustainable is a game of inches. There is no silver bullet that will make carbon emissions from fleets go away, while still making sure companies are meeting delivery expectations. Until teleporting becomes possible, cleaner fuel sources and truckload optimization is the most efficient way forward for fleet owners.