Will maintenance be the winner of the autonomous vehicle revolution?
When, not if, self-driving (autonomous) vehicles start to become popular, there will be a tremendous impact on our economy, according to the Brookings Institute (www.brookings.edu) – a nonprofit think tank devoted to independent research and innovative policy solutions
Because autonomous vehicles are programmed to follow the traffic laws, there will be fewer tickets. In some communities, traffic tickets are a major source of revenue.
With the implementation of intelligent parking meters, parking ticket revenues will drop like a ride at a theme park. Smart parking meters with smartphone apps cut some $6 million a year from parking ticket revenue in Washington D.C.
With a majority of autonomous vehicles, accidents also will drop dramatically. With fewer accidents, insurance companies will no longer be needed, or their mission will have to change. The $200 billion worth of insurance premiums per year will be considerably reduced.
Vehicle Sharing
When cars can navigate on their own, why have one car per adult? Couldn’t my wife and I share a car that could drive itself home after dropping me off and then take her to work?
Imagine a community car coop that could have three or four cars and a van for every 10 to 15 people. Envision a subscription-based, Uber-type service where you’ll order up a car like you would a pizza.
Whatever car sharing looks like in the future, the 15 million-a-year car production levels will be gone for good. Expect a 50-percent drop in auto and component manufacturing employment.
Less Demand for Drivers
Self-driving vehicles will cause a big hit against professional drivers. Currently, Freightliner has obtained a license to test autonomous trucks in Nevada. This is the beginning.
Imaging double or triple trailers being pulled across the country, only stopping for fuel. Consider the impact of eliminating taxi drivers, transit bus and coach drivers and regional rail conductors.
Another group that will be affected will be vehicle operators in factories, mines and warehouses. Some warehouses already have made the transition to autonomous vehicles.
Imagine an open pit mine with 300-ton-haul autonomous trucks running 24 hours, seven days a week with a nearly perfect safe driving record and with driving profiles designed to minimize fuel use and maintenance requirements. In a mine, haul truck operators are a significant portion of the labor.
Going forward, fleets may have to borrow a page from the airlines. For years, they have had autopilot systems that can take off in one place and land in another without intervention of a pilot, but they need to keep people in the “driver’s seat” for the public’s peace of mind.
A Bright Spot
The move to autonomous vehicles will not do away with vehicle maintenance personnel. While there will be fewer vehicles, the ones that are left will be in much more severe need of service.
Maintenance requirements will become far more rigid, with the vehicles “calling” your maintenance scheduling computer and asking for a low (scheduled service), moderate (alert codes that indicate a problem but not yet impacting performance) or high priority (something is about to break or a safety system is compromised) slot.
Autonomous systems require a new set of skills for the maintenance shop. Can your current crew deal with radar, GPS electronics, full-blown navigation computers, fly-by-wire systems, servos and various types of linear actuators, in addition to such regular work as oil changes and brake pad replacements?
Judging how vehicle maintenance professionals have managed other changes, we’ll be in for a rocky ride for a while, but then things will settle down – hopefully.
Good luck, and never stop learning.
Joel Levitt is director of international projects for Life Cycle Engineering (www.lce.com), an organization that provides consulting, engineering, applied technology and education solutions that deliver lasting results. Previously, he was president of Springfield Resources (www.maintenancetraining.com), a management consulting firm.
