LAS VEGAS—Since 2020, the light-duty vehicle segment has managed to grow every year, but not by much, with a cumulative increase of 5.4% over the past six years, according to the latest outlook from MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers.

Now at 294 million combined passengers and commercial units, the LD sector will generate $457 billion in revenue for the aftermarket in 2026, based on an S&P Global forecast. That’s a 5.2% year-over-year increase. S&P expects solid growth of at least 4% each year until 2029.

“It's a very encouraging, consistent outlook,” explained MEMA President Emily Poladian, who presented the data to the media at AAPEX 2026 on November 4. “Even in the uncertainty that we are all feeling in the current environment, the need to repair vehicles doesn't go away, which is part of what makes us a resilient market.”

That overall market comprises 350,000 businesses and creates 4 million jobs, she added, making it “an important part of the economy overall.”

Aging vehicles drive aftermarket growth

Poladian, who worked at Bridgestone from the mid-1990s until joining MEMA in January, noted that even consumers and fleets that have deferred maintenance due to the economy will eventually need replacement parts: “That maintenance has to be done eventually—and it will happen and we will continue to see that growth.”

The average vehicle age—12.9 years in 2026—will also inevitably require more visits to the shop. That’s one year higher than in 2020, and over two years higher than in 2011.

And soon more vehicles will be of the age to celebrate their ‘car’ mitzvah.

“We expect that next year, it will be over 13,” said Poladian, who offered that one of her family vehicles is 22. And she likely pays a lot more to maintain it versus her newer cars, considering an analysis by MEMA and S&P found that the maintenance cost per mile on vehicles older than 10 years is 5.5 times that of those under 5 years old.

Service cost per mile, according to S&P/MEMA analysis:

• 0-5 years: $0.20
• 6-10 years: $0.47
• 10+ years: $1.10

Whether the higher maintenance and repair costs are better than buying a new or slightly used car is an age-old debate; what is not up for debate is that in this environment aftermarket shops and parts suppliers stand to benefit.

“Currently, it is more affordable generally to go to the independent aftermarket,” Poladian said. Bill Hanvey, the president and CEO of ACA, said repairs done at independent shops cost on average 36% less than at the dealer.

The electric slide

This resilient market is set to transform in a major way over the next 10 years.

MEMA predicts the aftermarket could potentially reach $733 billion by 2035—with more of those parts allocated to battery-electric and hybrid vehicles. According to MEMA and Auto Care Association's 2026 Joint Powertrain Trends & Outlook forecast, EVs will triple from 8% new sales contribution in 2025 to 25% in 2035. Hybrids will nearly double from 17% in 2026 to 32% in 2035.

“We're also forecasting approximately 24% annual growth in post-warranty electrification parts revenue and 23% on the advanced driver assistance (ADAS) hardware revenue,” Poladian said.

While she said this “brings really big growth opportunities,” the industry must take this time to prepare. Maintenance providers will need all the time they can get. It’s well known that many technicians struggle with the current workload of electrical diagnostics and repair work. In the 2026 ATMC Training Benchmarks Survey, 64% of truck technicians said electrical and electronic systems were the top training priority. A 2025 survey by diagnostic provider TOPDON found 67% of auto techs listed vehicle network and communication systems as their most challenging diagnostic task, while 39% noted difficulties with critical EV and hybrid components, including battery packs and inverters.

We asked Poladian if she thinks the aftermarket can meet the industry needs by the time this transition takes place.

“I think they're on path to get ready,” she offered. “Staying ahead of it is the challenge.”

She cited readily accessible training and school partnerships as critical aspects.

“It's like any technology shift,” she continued. “You can't wait until it's fully in the market before you're ready to address it, because those cars will need repairs faster than we think…Even if it isn't as fast as what the current projections show, it's still coming, and it will be to your advantage to be ahead of the curve.”