A regular portion of the annual Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue (HDAD) is a look at the aftermarket.

This outlook conference, held in late January in Las Vega, is presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Assn. (HDMA) and MacKay & Company. It is specifically tailored toward the heavy duty aftermarket supplier industry. HDMA (www.hdma.org) provides industry leadership for NAFTA based original equipment and aftermarket suppliers in the on- and off-highway commercial vehicle equipment industry. MacKay & Company (www.mackayco.com) is a specialized management consulting and market research firm that focuses on commercial on-highway vehicles, construction equipment, farm field machinery and related components such as engines and transmissions.

Here are some highlights of the Structure & Trends of the Current Heavy Duty Aftermarket report, delivered by MacKay’s John Blodgett, vice president, sales and marketing, and David Kalvelage, manager, IT and database services.

2016 U. S. Operating Population - 9,228,500 Vehicles

- Class 8 - 2,902,700 vehicles, up 0.3 percent from 2015

- Class 6 & 7 - 1,469,600 vehicles, down 0.8 percent from 2015

- Trailer/container chassis - 4,856,200 vehicles, up 1.7 percent from 2015

Truck Brand Retail Share 2010

- Freightliner, 32 percent

- International, 25 percent

- Peterbilt, 12 percent

- Kenworth, 11 percent

- Mack, 9 percent

- Volvo, 9 percent

- Other, 2 percent

Truck Brand Retail Share 2015

- Freightliner, 38 percent

- Kenworth, 11 percent

- International, 15 percent

- Peterbilt, 13 percent

- Volvo, 12 percent

- Mack, 8 percent

- Other, 2 percent

Engine Brand Retail Share, Class 8, 2010

- Cummins, 39 percent

- Detroit Diesel, 24, percent

- Navistar, 13 percent

- Mack, 9 percent

- Volvo, 6 percent

- Caterpillar, 4 percent

- Mercedes Benz, 3 percent

- Paccar, 2 percent

Engine Brand Retail Share, Class 8, 2015

- Cummins, 36 percent

- Detroit Diesel, 29, percent

- Paccar, 11 percent

- Volvo, 11 percent

- Mack, 8 percent

- Navistar, 4 percent

- Mercedes Benz, 1 percent

- Caterpillar, 0 percent

Overall Industry Historical & Forecast Pricing, 1989 to 2016

- Average year-to-year percent change in parts prices, 2 percent

2016 U.S. Replacement Demand, Class 6 to 8, Trailers & Chassis, $30.2 Billion

2016 U.S. Point of Service, Class 6 to 8, Trailers & Chassis

- End user, 67 percent

- OE dealer, 16 percent

- Independent garage, 9 percent

- Engine distributor, 3 percent

- Rebuilder, 3 percent

- All others, 2 percent

2016 U.S. Channel of Distribution, Class 6 to 8, Trailers & Chassis

- OE dealer, 49 percent

- Heavy duty distributor, 18 percent

- Specialist, 6 percent

- Independent garage, 9 percent

- Engine distributor, 8 percent

- All others, 6 percent

- Auto parts, 4 percent

2016 U.S. Point of Service by Owner, Class 6 to 8, Trailers & Chassis, First Owners, $16.9 billon

- OE dealer, 53 percent

- Heavy duty distributor, 17 percent

- Engine distributor, 9 percent

- Specialist, 7 percent

- All others, 7 percent

- Independent garage, 5 percent

- Auto parts, 2 percent

2016 Point of Service, Class 6 to 8, Trailers & Chassis, Subsequent Owners, $13.3 Billion

- OE dealer, 43 percent

- Heavy duty distributor, 20 percent

- Independent garage, 14 percent

- Engine distributor, 6 percent

- Specialist, 6 percent

- All others, 6 percent

- Auto parts, 5 percent

Top Concerns About outsourcing Power Unit Service Work, 2015

- Time lost/downtime/turnaround, 36 percent

- Cost of repairs, 25 percent

- Quality of work/repair, 23 percent

Top Concerns About outsourcing Power Unit Service Work, 2016

- Cost of repairs, 26 percent

- Quality of work/repair, 26 percent

- Time lost/downtime/turnaround, 24 percent

2015 U.S. Replacement Demand, Type of Replacement, Class 6 to 8, Trailers & Chassis, $30.6 billon

- New, 75 percent

- Factory reman, 15 percent

- Local rebuilt, 5 percent

- OE dealer rebuilt, 2 percent

- Owner repair, 2 percent

- Used, 1 percent

2016 U.S. Replacement Demand, Type of Replacement, Class 6 to 8, Trailers & Chassis, $30.2 billion

- New, 77 percent

- Factory reman, 14 percent

- Local rebuilt, 4 percent

- OE dealer rebuilt, 2 percent

- Owner repair, 2 percent

- Used, 1 percent

U.S. Aftermarket Demand Forecast Class 6-8, Trailers ($ Billions]

- 2015 - $30.61

- 2016 - $30.16

- 2017 - $30.16

- 2018 - $31.17

- 2019 - $32.23

- 2020 - $33.48

- 2021 - $34.60

Aftermarket Landscape

According to MacKay & Company research, among the changes impacting the heavy duty aftermarket supplier industry, said Blodgett and Kalvelage, are:

• Emission related components are the fastest growing component. Since 2010, aftermarket demand has increased 254 percent. By 2021, demand is predicted to increase another 42 percent.
• There is a shift to aluminum radiators. That is impacting serviceability, which in turn is having a business impact on smaller repair shops.
• DPF (diesel particulate filter) cleaning is shifting from cleaning locally to the use of factory remanufactured products.
• There is a shift from remanufactured to new product for starter and alternator replacement – from offshore manufacturers – mainly due to price equality.